Black Friday 2026: Record Spending, Smarter Shoppers and the Rise of AI

Australians are tipped to spend a record $7.2 billion this Black Friday weekend. But the biggest story isn't how much we're spending. It's how the way we shop is changing.

Black Friday has become one of the biggest events on Australia's retail calendar, and 2026 is shaping up to be another record-breaking year.

According to new research from the Australian Retail Council (ARC) and Roy Morgan, Australians are expected to spend $7.2 billion across Black Friday and Cyber Monday, from 27 to 30 November 2026.

That's a 5.5% increase on last year.

But there's something particularly interesting hiding behind that enormous figure.

Fewer Australians are planning to shop the sales, yet those who participate are expected to spend more.

And increasingly, artificial intelligence is helping them decide where to spend their money.

For Australian businesses, these changing behaviours could have implications that extend well beyond one weekend of sales.

Fewer Shoppers, Bigger Budgets

The ARC and Roy Morgan research suggests approximately 5.8 million Australians intend to participate in Black Friday this year, compared with around six million in 2025.

Despite that decrease, the average planned spend has increased to $920 per shopper, up 14.4% from last year.

Almost one in three participating shoppers expects to spend at least $1,000.

At first glance, record spending might suggest Australians are feeling increasingly confident about their finances.

But the reality is more complicated.

With cost-of-living pressures continuing to influence household budgets, many consumers are becoming more deliberate about their purchases.

Rather than buying whenever something catches their attention, they're planning ahead, researching their options and waiting for opportunities to secure better value.

In fact, 58% of participating shoppers identify low prices as a key motivation, while 39% are shopping to save money on Christmas presents.

Black Friday isn't necessarily encouraging people to spend without thinking. For many, it's becoming part of a carefully planned shopping strategy.

What Does This Mean for Australian Businesses?

For retailers, the opportunity isn't simply to offer the biggest discount.

It's to understand how customers make purchasing decisions.

Someone visiting your website during Black Friday may have been considering their purchase for several weeks.

They might have already compared competing products, read customer reviews and worked out exactly what they're prepared to spend.

By the time they reach your business, they may be looking for reassurance rather than persuasion.

That changes how we should think about marketing during major sales periods.

Businesses that communicate their value clearly, demonstrate reliability and make the buying process straightforward may be better positioned to convert interested shoppers.

And while discounts can encourage purchases, they're not always the only deciding factor.

Customer service, convenience, product quality, delivery options and trust all have a role to play.

For smaller Australian businesses, this is particularly important.

Competing with major retailers purely on price isn't always commercially sustainable. But communicating what makes your business worth choosing is something every business can work on.

AI Is Becoming Part of the Shopping Journey

Perhaps the most significant finding in this year's research is the growing role of artificial intelligence.

One in four participating Black Friday shoppers surveyed plans to use an AI chatbot to research products or find deals.

Of those planning to use AI, 72% say it will be their first time doing so for Black Friday.

That's a development Australian businesses should pay attention to.

Until recently, much of the conversation about AI in marketing has centred on how businesses can use it to create content, improve productivity and automate everyday tasks.

Now we're seeing another side of the equation.

Customers are using AI to help them make purchasing decisions.

Instead of visiting multiple websites individually, a shopper might ask an AI assistant to compare products, explain differences, identify suitable options or help find competitive prices.

This doesn't mean traditional search engines are disappearing, or that AI recommendations are always accurate.

But it does mean businesses need to consider another way customers might discover their products and services.

Is Your Business Ready for AI-Assisted Shopping?

For businesses, preparing for this change starts with something surprisingly straightforward: making information easy to find and understand.

If an AI assistant is helping someone research a product, the quality and accessibility of online information can influence what it is able to retrieve and explain.

That makes several established marketing practices increasingly valuable:

• Accurate product and service information: Clear descriptions, specifications, pricing and availability help customers understand what you're offering.
• A well-maintained website: Organised, accessible content makes it easier for search engines, customers and compatible AI tools to interpret your business information.
• Credible customer reviews: Genuine feedback helps potential customers assess quality, reliability and customer experience.
• Consistent business details: Keeping contact information, locations and business profiles up to date reduces confusion.
• Clear competitive advantages: Explaining why your offering is different helps customers make meaningful comparisons beyond price.

None of these actions guarantees that an AI chatbot will recommend your business.

But they're sensible foundations for online visibility, regardless of how someone discovers you.

And importantly, they also make the experience better for customers who prefer to research and shop without AI.

Trust Still Matters More Than Ever

Technology is making it easier for consumers to compare their options.

But having more information doesn't necessarily make purchasing decisions easier.

Customers still need to decide which businesses they trust.

An AI assistant might help someone narrow down their options, but the business itself still needs to deliver on its promises.

That includes providing accurate information, offering dependable service and creating a positive customer experience.

It's a useful reminder that new technology doesn't eliminate the fundamentals of good marketing.

If anything, it makes them more visible.

A strong reputation, a compelling offer and a trustworthy brand remain valuable, whether a customer finds your business through Google, social media, word of mouth or an AI-assisted search.

Looking Beyond Black Friday

The forecast $7.2 billion Black Friday weekend represents a significant opportunity for Australian retailers.

But the more important story may be what these figures tell us about the future of shopping.

Consumers are planning more carefully. They're placing greater emphasis on value. And they're beginning to incorporate AI into their research and purchasing decisions.

For business owners and marketers, that's worth understanding.

Not because every business needs to chase the latest technology trend, but because successful marketing has always started with understanding how customers behave.

The tools people use to find businesses may change, but the need to earn their attention and trust remains.

And as AI-assisted shopping becomes more familiar, businesses that combine strong digital visibility with genuine customer value will have an opportunity to stand out.

Join the Conversation in Moonah Marketing Studio

In the latest episode of Moonah Marketing Studio, Sarah Newnham explores Australia's Black Friday spending forecasts, the changing habits of Australian shoppers and what the rise of AI-assisted shopping could mean for businesses.

Listen to Black Friday 2026: Record Spending and the Rise of AI Shopping on Spotify.